Past Predictions

Reasoning Model Pricing Collapses Below $1 Per Million Tokens by Q2 2026

Validated in full - two named providers crossed the line with margin before the deadline. OpenAI GPT-5.4 nano listed 20 cents per million input tokens with configurable reasoning effort in March 2026, and Google Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite reached GA at 25 cents in May 2026 with full thinking levels, later cut to about 12 cents.

AI Startup Talent Exodus Wave: 5+ Major Startups Face Co-Founder Departures by Q2 2026

Incorrect - only two startups above one billion dollars lost two or more co-founders in the window (Thinking Machines Lab and xAI), below the five-startup bar and below even partial credit. The talent-war framing was real but the co-founder-departure wave did not materialize, and June's dominant exodus story ran the opposite direction, out of Google DeepMind.

Deepfake Voice/Video Fraud Will Cause Fortune 500 Enterprise Crisis by H1 2026

Partial - the deepfake fraud pattern vastly exceeded the aggregate thresholds (FBI logged 893 million dollars in AI-referenced 2025 losses; quarterly deepfake losses in the hundreds of millions), but no Fortune 500 company made an official named disclosure attributing a 10-million-dollar loss to deepfakes by the deadline. The widely recycled 28-million-dollar case is unattributed vendor copy, exactly the anonymized tier the rubric discounts.

GPT-4 Class Inference Costs Will Drop Below $0.50 Per Million Tokens by Mid-2026

Validated - at least four commercial providers (DeepSeek, xAI, Groq, DeepInfra) offered public APIs to GPT-4-class models averaging under fifty cents per million tokens by the deadline, with DeepSeek V3.2 at a thirty-five cent average the cleanest first-party case. Scored 92 because the first-party OpenAI and Google sub-fifty-cent tiers sat just under the 85 percent MMLU bar and the count leans on open-weight hosts, which the criteria permit.

China Will Announce Major Chip Manufacturing Breakthrough Within 12 Months of H200 Approval

Partial per its own rubric - the trigger landed almost exactly (H200 sales approved January 13-16, 2026) and China produced a cluster of real but sub-threshold advances (SMIC N+3 volume production, Ascend 950PR mass production, a domestic EUV prototype in testing). No single announcement cleared the defined bars, and Beijing blocked the approved H200s anyway, inverting the causal mechanism.

Enterprise AI Infrastructure Spending Will Decline 20-30% in Q2 2026 as ROI Reality Sets In

Falsified on nearly every sub-claim - hyperscaler capex hit a combined 112 billion dollar quarter with guidance raised toward 650 to 700 billion for 2026, Nvidia data center revenue grew 21 percent sequentially, surveys showed rising AI budgets, and the marquee AI infrastructure IPO upsized. Only the ROI-anxiety mood materialized, as equity repricing rather than a spending decline.

GitHub Will Launch Autonomous Coding Agent Capable of Production Deployments by Q2 2026

Inaccurate on the load-bearing claim - GitHub shipped a GA autonomous coding agent with natural-language input, multi-file implementation, and automated tests well before the deadline, but every product terminates at a draft pull request awaiting human review. GitHub built and marketed the opposite of a zero-gate spec-to-production pipeline.

Major Corporation Will Publicly Attribute Layoffs to AI Automation by Q2 2026

Accurate - Oracle resolved it cleanly on June 22, 2026, disclosing in its 10-K that about 21,000 positions were cut with explicit language that AI adoption and deployment have resulted in workforce reductions. PayPal, Cisco, and Intuit added breadth with partial attribution, and by mid-2026 a majority of tracked layoff events explicitly cited AI.

AI Will Automate 40% of Knowledge Work Tasks by End of 2025

Prediction largely accurate on capability but overstated autonomous handling - AI assists 40%+ of tasks but only 15% operate semi-autonomously without human oversight

X Will Partially Revert to Twitter Branding

Prediction completely failed - X maintained full rebrand through 2025 with no Twitter branding returned

Bitcoin Will Reach $100,000 Before End of 2025

Prediction failed - Bitcoin peaked around $110,000 in May-June 2025 but fell to $87,000-$88,700 by year end, missing the prediction window

TikTok US Ban Will Be Reversed or Significantly Delayed Through 2025

Prediction highly accurate - TikTok ban delayed through 2025 via executive orders, deal signed Dec 18 for hybrid US joint venture allowing continued operation

OpenAI Ships GPT-5.2 by December 31, 2025

Prediction highly accurate - GPT-5.2 launched Dec 11, 2025, only 2 days after predicted Dec 9 date. All core elements correct including Code Red response, performance focus, and three-version structure.

SpaceX Falcon 9 Starlink 6-90 Will Successfully Deploy Satellites and Land Booster on December 11, 2025

Complete mission success - all 29 satellites deployed, booster landed successfully

Federal Reserve Will Cut Rates by 50+ Basis Points in Q2

Prediction was incorrect - Fed did not cut rates in Q2 2025. First cut came in September 2025, three months late.

NBA Announces Expansion to Seattle and Las Vegas

Prediction was incorrect - no formal announcement made by October 31, 2025. NBA is still discussing expansion but has not announced franchises.

Major Leadership Change at OpenAI Before End of 2023