At least two of the next three Ohio winters will finish above the 1991-2020 temperature normal

Prediction statement

At least two of the next three meteorological winters in Ohio — December through February of 2026-27, 2027-28, and 2028-29 — will finish with a statewide average temperature above the 1991-2020 normal of 30.7 degrees F, as measured by NOAA's Climate at a Glance statewide time series (Ohio, average temperature, three-month December-February season).

This is a claim about climate-loaded dice, not about any single winter. Any one Ohio winter is still a coin flip shaded warm. Three in a row is where the loading shows.

Reasoning and analysis

Winter is the fastest-warming season in Ohio, a pattern Climate Central found across 76 percent of 245 U.S. locations analyzed, with the sharpest winter warming clustered in the Northeast, Southeast, and Ohio Valley. The seasonal signal in Ohio is roughly twice the summer trend.

The base rate already leans warm. In the ten winters ending 2017 through 2026, six finished above the 1991-2020 statewide normal (2017 at +4.7 degrees F, 2019 at +1.1, 2020 at +3.9, 2022 at +0.9, 2023 at +5.3, and 2024 at +5.7). Treating each winter as an independent 60 percent event, the odds of at least two of three above normal are about 65 percent before considering anything else.

Two things push above that base rate:

1. A strong El Nino is already underway. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center upgraded to an El Nino Advisory on June 11, 2026, with a 96-98 percent probability of El Nino persisting through the 2026-27 winter and roughly 63 percent odds of a very strong event peaking November through January. Strong El Nino winters tilt the Ohio Valley warm: the three strongest recent El Nino winters (1997-98, 2015-16, 2023-24) all finished well above normal in Ohio, the latter two at +4.1 and +5.7 degrees F. That materially raises the probability that the first of the three winters lands above normal.
2. The trend itself. The 1991-2020 normal is a backward-looking baseline. Each year of continued warming makes "above normal" against a frozen baseline slightly easier to achieve.

One thing pushes against it, and it is why this is not a 85 percent call: the two most recent winters (2025 at -1.6 degrees F, 2026 at -3.2) both finished below normal. Cold outcomes remain entirely available — a warming Arctic produces a wavier jet stream, and a deep polar-vortex winter can erase the trend signal for a season. Strong El Nino events are also frequently followed by La Nina, whose Ohio winter signal is mixed and can run cold.

Net: roughly 60 percent base rate, boosted for winter one by El Nino, discounted for a plausible La Nina winter two. Calibrated confidence: 70 percent.

Confidence factors

Would increase confidence:

• El Nino peaks very strong (Oceanic Nino Index at or above +2.0) and the 2026-27 winter finishes more than 2 degrees F above normal, banking one of the two required winters immediately
• ENSO-neutral conditions rather than La Nina for 2027-28
• Continuation of the post-2015 pattern in which above-normal winters outnumber below-normal winters roughly two to one

Would decrease confidence:

• The 2026-27 winter finishes below normal despite the strong El Nino, which would suggest the seasonal forcing is being overwhelmed
• A multi-year La Nina developing in 2027, as followed the 2015-16 El Nino
• Two of the first two winters finishing below normal, which converts the prediction to a must-hit on winter three

Key indicators

• NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, monthly — the single most useful leading indicator for each upcoming winter
• Ohio statewide December temperature anomaly each year — December has been the most volatile of the three winter months and sets the tone for the seasonal number
• Great Lakes ice cover and Lake Erie surface temperature entering January — low ice correlates with milder regional winters
• CPC seasonal (three-month) temperature outlooks issued each November

Validation criteria

Source of truth: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance, statewide time series, Ohio, average temperature, three-month timescale ending in February, with anomalies computed against the 1991-2020 base period (30.7 degrees F). The winters counted are those labeled 2027, 2028, and 2029 in that series. Evaluation uses the values published as of March 31, 2029 (final February data are typically posted by mid-March).

• 100 percent accurate: Two or three of the three winters finish above 30.7 degrees F
• 35 percent accurate: Exactly one winter finishes above normal
• 0 percent accurate: No winter finishes above normal

Edge cases: a winter that lands exactly on the normal (anomaly of 0.0 after rounding to one decimal) counts as not above normal. If NOAA revises the station-based statewide series mid-window, the evaluation uses the series as published at evaluation time but documents any revision. The 1991-2020 base period is fixed for this prediction regardless of any future normals update.

This prediction is the falsifiable companion to the pillar analysis The Green Land That Died: What Mesopotamia's Collapse Predicts for the American Midwest, which lays out the winter-first mechanism in full.