Valuation

On July 17 Nvidia lost the most-valuable-company crown while its data center revenue grew 92 percent and guidance accelerated. The AI trade is re-rating on durability, not earnings.

Half of Alphabet's and Amazon's headline Q1 2026 profits did not come from selling cloud, ads, or commerce. They came from marking up the carrying value of an Anthropic stake whose next funding round is being structured by the same companies booking the gains. The accounting is legal, the cash is not real, and the circularity is now the dominant feature of Big Tech earnings. This is what mark-to-market AI economics looks like at $900 billion.

As $380 billion flows into AI data centers, the market is bifurcating between companies spending on infrastructure and those profiting from it. Wall Street is finally demanding to see who's making money versus who's burning cash. The Great AI Reckoning begins in 2026.